Doubling Down: The Future of the College Football Playoff

This past January, college sport fans were bestowed with an image that is so familiar, Alabama head coach Nick Saban hoisting the College Football Playoff National Championship trophy. The 2020 college football season was unlike any other, as the coronavirus pandemic threw curveball after curveball at teams and athletic departments. That’s why a team like Alabama, who is defined by their team culture which starts with head coach Nick Saban, was able to run the table and win the national championship. As a diehard Alabama fan, this win brought a big old smile to my face.

But the next morning I turned on Colin Cowherd’s radio show on Fox Sports One, and he did not have the same smile I had on my face the previous night. Instead of celebrating and reflecting on the longevity and greatness of the Alabama dynasty, Colin discussed how the current College Football Playoff format has made the college football landscape scale stale, and how expansion was critical. Colin Cowherd is not alone in the argument to expand the College Football Playoff away from the current four team format. Fans, media pundits, athletic directors, and conference commissioners alike have championed increasing the number of teams invited to the playoff. The magic numbers from individuals who are pro-expansion range from 6, to 8, to 16 teams. Before I detail how potential playoff expansion may impact the collegiate landscape, it’s important to understand why people want a revolution to the structure of college football.

Sport Illustrated's proposed 12 team playoff format.

After nearly a decade with the Bowl Championship Series, the NCAA approved a four-team playoff to decide who will be crowned the national championship, with the inaugural season of the College Football Playoff taking place in 2014. In the six iterations of the College Football Playoff, three schools have been selected to compete in each playoff: Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State. Alabama has won three of the seven champions, Clemson has won two of the seven, and Ohio State and LSU have each won one national title in the CFP era. A primary criticism of the current system is that it allows powerhouse programs like Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State to dominate the college football landscape, leaving up-and-coming and historical programs alike in the dust as they cannot compete in the postseason. In turn, critics cite that casual viewers will be less inclined to watch the playoff if it’s the same schools competing year in and year out. This sentiment played out in real time this past year as well. Even though Alabama and Ohio State are two of the largest brands in college football, their battle for the 2021 National Championship was the least watched national championship game of not just the CFP era, but also the BCS era as well (Saturday Down South).

Another argument for expanding the playoff is that the current structure leaves even non-playoff bowl games obsolete to not just the fans, but also to the student-athletes as well. Opt-outs are now commonplace for New Year Six bowl games, as draft eligible starters will sit these games out in order to avoid a catastrophic injury before the NFL Draft. Proponents of expansion also cite that expansion will allow more teams and conferences to participate in the playoff, especially mid-major programs. Two of the higher profile mid-major teams to be left out of the playoff were Cincinnati this past season, and undefeated UCF in 2017. Both of these teams sparked conversations that centered around allowing expansion so the playing field between mid-major programs and Power 5 programs could be leveled. Power-brokers in college football also want playoff expansion so other Power 5 conferences are more involved. In September, PAC-12 commissioner Larry Scott had his eight-team playoff proposal shelved by the committee (USA Today). Scott wanted and still wants playoff expansion because the PAC-12 has been largely absent from the CFP field. A PAC-12 team has made the playoffs only twice, Oregon in 2014 and Washington in 2017.

While everyone wants to believe that playoff expansion is truly about allowing more teams to be involved in the playoff, like almost everything in college sports, playoff expansion comes down to money. Conference commissioners, especially those in mid-major conferences, want their member programs to reap the benefits of revenue sharing. When a team makes the playoff, the conference divvies up the money earned from the playoff TV money between each program, making each team in the conference wealthier in the process. This is why college football playoff expansion would most likely be beneficial to the industry. If more teams are able to access the brand exposure, profits, and allure of the College Football Playoff, then it would make the industry healthier as a whole as more programs would reap the rewards. CFP expansion would also be more exciting for the fans, and that excitement will drive TV ratings up in the future, leading to more lucrative TV contracts for conferences in the future. It’s important to note, though, that expansion has to be incremental. A 16-team playoff would render the special and enthralling college football almost meaningless. In my opinion, a six-team playoff would hit the perfect balance of including more teams in the playoff experience and resources, and still keeping the regular season truly special.